Board paper

Foundation of Financial Systems 2081 Board Question Paper

MGT 226 · Foundation of Financial Systems

Programme
BBS
Academic year
Third Year
Exam year
2081 BS
Sitting
regular
Full marks
100
Duration
180 minutes

Tribhuvan University

Faculty of Management

Office of the Dean

2081 BS / Regular Examination

Course: MGT 226 · Foundation of Financial Systems

Level: Bachelor of Business Studies (BBS) · Third Year

Full Marks: 100

Time: 3 hrs.

Candidates are required to give their answers in their own words as far as practicable. The figures in the margin indicate full marks.

Section A

Brief Answer Questions ( Attempt All questions )

[10*2=20]
  1. Write the meaning of financial system.

    [2]
    View model solution

    Meaning of Financial System

    A financial system is the organized institutional structure comprising financial markets, institutions, instruments, rules, and regulatory bodies that facilitates the mobilization of savings from surplus units (households/savers) and channels them to deficit units (investors, businesses, and governments) for productive investment.

  2. What do you mean by capital market?

    [2]
    View model solution

    Capital Market

    The capital market is the financial market arena dedicated to raising and trading long-term capital assets with original maturities exceeding one year (including common equity, preference shares, debentures, and government development bonds).

    • It consists of the primary market for issuing new securities and the secondary market (NEPSE) for providing liquidity to existing investors.
  3. What are the components of bank equity capital?

    [2]
    View model solution

    Components of Bank Equity Capital (Core Tier-1 Capital)

    Under NRB’s Capital Adequacy Framework, bank equity capital includes:

    1. Paid-Up Common Equity Capital: Funds contributed by ordinary shareholders.
    2. Share Premium: Excess amount received over the nominal par value of issued shares.
    3. Statutory General Reserve: Mandatory reserve funded by annual allocations (minimum 20% of net profits).
    4. Retained Earnings and Free Reserves: Accumulated undistributed corporate profits.
  4. State the concept of non-depository institutions.

    [2]
    View model solution

    Concept of Non-Depository Institutions

    Non-depository financial institutions are financial intermediaries that do not accept traditional demand, saving, or fixed deposits from the general public.

    • Instead, they mobilize long-term funds by issuing contractual agreements, insurance policies, pension schemes, or investment units (e.g., Life & Non-Life Insurance companies, Citizen Investment Trust, Employee Provident Fund, and Mutual Funds).
  5. How do you compute NEPSE index.

    [2]
    View model solution

    Computation of NEPSE Index

    The NEPSE Index is a market-capitalization-weighted (value-weighted) index computed using the following formula:

    NEPSE Index=Current Total Market CapitalizationBase Market Capitalization×Base Index (100)\text{NEPSE Index} = \frac{\text{Current Total Market Capitalization}}{\text{Base Market Capitalization}} \times \text{Base Index (100)}
    where Current Market Capitalization=(Current Market Price per Share×Listed Shares)\text{where } \text{Current Market Capitalization} = \sum (\text{Current Market Price per Share} \times \text{Listed Shares})
  6. Write the meaning of initial public offerings.

    [2]
    View model solution

    Meaning of Initial Public Offering (IPO)

    An Initial Public Offering (IPO) is the initial sale of newly created equity shares by an unlisted corporate enterprise to the general public, enabling the company to mobilize equity capital and obtain an official listing on the stock exchange (NEPSE) under the regulatory oversight of SEBON.

  7. XYZ mutual fund has 500,000 shares outstanding, and its assets consist of common stock with an aggregate market value of Rs 6,800,000 and

    liabilities of Rs 300,000 as of Asar 31, 2081. What is the NAV per share of the fund?

    [2]
    View model solution

    Calculation of NAV per Share

    Given Data:

    • Market Value of Assets = Rs. 6,800,000
    • Total Liabilities = Rs. 300,000
    • Number of Shares Outstanding = 500,000 units

    Formula:

    NAV per share=Total AssetsTotal LiabilitiesNumber of Shares Outstanding\text{NAV per share} = \frac{\text{Total Assets} - \text{Total Liabilities}}{\text{Number of Shares Outstanding}}

    Calculation:

    Net Assets=6,800,000300,000=Rs. 6,500,000\text{Net Assets} = 6,800,000 - 300,000 = \text{Rs. } 6,500,000
    NAV per share=6,500,000500,000=Rs.  13.00\text{NAV per share} = \frac{6,500,000}{500,000} = \mathbf{Rs.\; 13.00}

    The NAV per share of XYZ mutual fund is Rs. 13.00.

  8. A bank has profit margin ratio of 12 percent and asset utilization ratio of 0.6 times. What is its return on assets?

    [2]
    View model solution

    Calculation of Return on Assets (ROA)

    Given Data:

    • Profit Margin (PM) = 12%=0.1212\% = 0.12
    • Asset Utilization (AU) = 0.6 times0.6\text{ times}

    Formula:

    ROA=Profit Margin×Asset Utilization\text{ROA} = \text{Profit Margin} \times \text{Asset Utilization}

    Calculation:

    ROA=12%×0.6=7.20%\text{ROA} = 12\% \times 0.6 = \mathbf{7.20\%}

    The bank’s Return on Assets (ROA) is 7.20%.

  9. A T-bill with face value Rs 10,000 and 180 days to maturity is selling at Rs 9,750. Calculate annual yield on the T-bill.

    [2]
    View model solution

    Calculation of Annual Yield on T-Bill

    Given Data:

    • Face Value (FF) = Rs. 10,000
    • Selling Price (PP) = Rs. 9,750
    • Days to Maturity (tt) = 180 days
    • Discount (DD) = FP=10,0009,750=Rs. 250F - P = 10,000 - 9,750 = \text{Rs. } 250

    1. Bank Discount Yield (YBDY_{BD}, 360-day year):

    YBD=DF×360t=25010,000×360180=0.025×2=5.00%Y_{BD} = \frac{D}{F} \times \frac{360}{t} = \frac{250}{10,000} \times \frac{360}{180} = 0.025 \times 2 = \mathbf{5.00\%}

    2. Bond Equivalent Yield (YBEYY_{BEY}, 365-day year):

    YBEY=DP×365t=2509,750×365180=0.025641×2.02778=5.20%Y_{BEY} = \frac{D}{P} \times \frac{365}{t} = \frac{250}{9,750} \times \frac{365}{180} = 0.025641 \times 2.02778 = \mathbf{5.20\%}

  10. Bank ABC has a gap ratio of 18 percent, while that of Bank XYZ is 24 percent. Which bank is more interest rate sensitive?

    [2]
    View model solution

    Interest Rate Sensitivity Comparison

    Given:

    • Bank ABC Gap Ratio = 18% (0.18)
    • Bank XYZ Gap Ratio = 24% (0.24)

    Evaluation:

    1. Under RSARSL\frac{\text{RSA}}{\text{RSL}} Definition:
      • Both banks are liability-sensitive (<1.0< 1.0).
      • Deviation from neutrality (1.0):
        • Bank ABC: 1.00.18=0.82|1.0 - 0.18| = 0.82
        • Bank XYZ: 1.00.24=0.76|1.0 - 0.24| = 0.76
      • Bank ABC has a greater mismatch from balanced rate sensitivity, meaning its net interest margin will fluctuate more sharply. Hence, Bank ABC is more sensitive.
    2. Under GapTotal Assets\frac{\text{Gap}}{\text{Total Assets}} Definition:
      • Bank XYZ (24%) has a higher gap proportion relative to total assets than Bank ABC (18%), making Bank XYZ more sensitive on total balance sheet exposure.

Section B

Descriptive Answer Questions ( Attempt FIVE questions )

[5*10=50]
  1. Explain the major functions, duties and power of Nepal Rastra Bank as the monetary authority.

    [10 ]2.Describe the meaning and functions of secondary markets.

    [10]
    View model solution

    Comprehensive Solution: NRB Authority & Secondary Market Functions


    Part I: Major Functions, Duties, and Powers of Nepal Rastra Bank (NRB)

    Under the Nepal Rastra Bank Act, 2058, NRB functions as the sovereign central bank and monetary authority:

    1. Formulation and Implementation of Monetary Policy:
      • Formulates and executes annual monetary policies to manage domestic liquidity, maintain price stability, and manage the interest rate corridor (repo, reverse repo, and standing liquidity facility).
    2. Sole Issuer of Currency (Banknotes and Coins):
      • Holds the exclusive monopoly on designing, printing, minting, and circulating legal tender currency in Nepal, maintaining adequate reserve backing (gold, foreign securities, and currency).
    3. Banker, Financial Advisor, and Fiscal Agent to the Government:
      • Operates government treasury accounts, advises the Ministry of Finance on macroeconomic policy, and manages domestic public debt by auctioning Treasury Bills and Development Bonds.
    4. Bankers’ Bank and Lender of Last Resort (LOLR):
      • Provides settlement accounts and rediscount facilities to commercial banks and acts as the lender of last resort during acute liquidity emergencies.
    5. Regulation, Licensing, and Inspection of BFIs:
      • Issues licenses, issues unified prudential directives, and performs onsite and offsite supervision of Class ‘A’, ‘B’, ‘C’, and ‘D’ financial institutions.
    6. Management of Foreign Exchange Reserves & Exchange Rate Policy:
      • Formulates foreign exchange policies, manages sovereign foreign currency reserves, and maintains the currency peg with the Indian Rupee (INR).

    Part II: Meaning and Functions of Secondary Markets

    1. Meaning of Secondary Market

    The secondary market (stock exchange) is that segment of the capital market where previously issued financial securities (stocks, bonds, debentures, mutual fund units) are traded among existing investors without involving the original corporate issuer. In Nepal, the secondary market is operated by the Nepal Stock Exchange (NEPSE).

    2. Functions of Secondary Market

    1. Continuous Liquidity and Marketability:
      • Transforms long-term, illiquid securities into immediate cash, assuring investors that they can exit or enter positions at any time.
    2. Fair Price Discovery:
      • Determines transparent market prices based on real-time continuous forces of supply and demand through the automated trading system (NEPSE NOTS).
    3. Capital Reallocation to Productive Enterprises:
      • Efficient secondary pricing signals which corporations are profitable and well-governed, guiding fresh capital allocation.
    4. Economic Barometer:
      • Stock price indices reflect macroeconomic trends, political stability, and corporate profitability.
    5. Investor Protection and Corporate Discipline:
      • Listed companies must disclose quarterly audited financials and material corporate information, promoting transparency.
  2. Green Food Limited has grown rapidly during the past five years. Recently, company has discovered some good investment opportunity. It plans

    to raise an additional Rs 2,000,000 through rights offerings. Current market price of the stock is Rs 200. But subscription price is set at Rs 100

    which is equal to its par value. Company has 80,000 shares outstanding.

    a. How many new shares of common stock the company must issue to raise required amount of funds?

    b. What are the number of rights required to purchase one new share?

    c. Calculate theoretical value of each right.

    d. Calculate theoretical value of a share when stock goes ex-right.

    e. Calculate theoretical value of a right when the stock sells ex-rights and the actual market price goes to Rs 185 per share

    [10]
    View model solution

    Solution: Green Food Limited Rights Offering

    Given Parameters:

    • Capital to be raised = Rs. 2,000,000
    • Current market price per share (P0P_0) = Rs. 200
    • Subscription price per share (PsP_s) = Rs. 100 (par value)
    • Existing shares outstanding (N0N_0) = 80,000 shares

    Part (a): Number of New Shares to be Issued (SS)

    S=Funds to be RaisedSubscription Price (Ps)=2,000,000100=20,000 new sharesS = \frac{\text{Funds to be Raised}}{\text{Subscription Price } (P_s)} = \frac{2,000,000}{100} = \mathbf{20,000\text{ new shares}}

    Part (b): Number of Rights Required to Purchase One New Share (NN)

    Each existing share receives one right.

    N=Existing Shares (N0)New Shares (S)=80,00020,000=4 rightsN = \frac{\text{Existing Shares } (N_0)}{\text{New Shares } (S)} = \frac{80,000}{20,000} = \mathbf{4\text{ rights}}
    (An investor must hold 4 rights to purchase 1 new share).


    Part (c): Theoretical Value of Each Right (VrV_r) when Stock is Rights-on

    Vr=P0PsN+1=2001004+1=1005=Rs.  20.00V_r = \frac{P_0 - P_s}{N + 1} = \frac{200 - 100}{4 + 1} = \frac{100}{5} = \mathbf{Rs.\; 20.00}

    Part (d): Theoretical Value of a Share Ex-Rights (PeP_e)

    Pe=P0Vr=20020=Rs.  180.00P_e = P_0 - V_r = 200 - 20 = \mathbf{Rs.\; 180.00}

    (Verification: Pe=(4×200)+1004+1=800+1005=Rs. 180.00P_e = \frac{(4 \times 200) + 100}{4 + 1} = \frac{800 + 100}{5} = \text{Rs. } 180.00)


    Part (e): Theoretical Value of a Right when Stock Sells Ex-Rights at Actual Market Price of Rs. 185 (PeP_e')

    When the stock trades ex-rights, the value of a right (VrV_r') is:

    Vr=PePsN=1851004=854=Rs.  21.25V_r' = \frac{P_e' - P_s}{N} = \frac{185 - 100}{4} = \frac{85}{4} = \mathbf{Rs.\; 21.25}

    The theoretical value of the right under the new ex-rights market price is Rs. 21.25.

  3. Himalayan Bank Limited (HBL) has Rs 500 million in the reserve for loan loss account on its balance sheet. The bank management has decided

    that the minimum adequate reserve is Rs 475 million. Assume that Rs 50 million of loans are uncollectible and bank management charges off

    these loans.

    a. How much the bank management should increase the accrued expenses item, provision for loan losses to replenish the reserve?

    b. Suppose that the bank management charges off Rs 100 million and recovers Rs 50 million. What will be the amount of net charge-off?

    c. What will be the provision for loan losses for the current year if bank maintains the minimum adequate reserve for loan losses assuming that amount of gross charge-off is Rs 100 million and recovery amount is Rs 50 million?

    d. What will be the reserves for loan losses?

    [10]
    View model solution

    Solution: Himalayan Bank Limited Loan Loss Reserve Accounting

    Initial Parameters:

    • Beginning Reserve for Loan Losses (ALL) = Rs. 500 million
    • Target Minimum Adequate Reserve = Rs. 475 million

    Part (a): Replenishing Reserve after Rs. 50 Million Charge-Off

    1. When Rs. 50 million of uncollectible loans are charged off:
      Reserve Balance=Beginning ALLGross Charge-off=50050=Rs. 450 million\text{Reserve Balance} = \text{Beginning ALL} - \text{Gross Charge-off} = 500 - 50 = \text{Rs. 450 million}
    2. The minimum adequate reserve target is Rs. 475 million.
    3. The shortfall to be replenished:
      Shortfall=475450=Rs. 25 million\text{Shortfall} = 475 - 450 = \text{Rs. 25 million}
    4. Answer: Bank management should increase the accrued expense item (Provision for Loan Losses - PLL) by Rs. 25 million to restore the reserve to the minimum adequate level of Rs. 475 million.

    Part (b): Net Charge-Off Amount

    • Gross Charge-offs = Rs. 100 million
    • Recoveries = Rs. 50 million
    Net Charge-off (NCO)=Gross Charge-offsRecoveries\text{Net Charge-off (NCO)} = \text{Gross Charge-offs} - \text{Recoveries}
    Net Charge-off=10050=Rs.  50 million\text{Net Charge-off} = 100 - 50 = \mathbf{Rs.\; 50\text{ million}}

    Part (c): Provision for Loan Losses (PLL) for Current Year

    1. Beginning Reserve = Rs. 500 million
    2. Net Charge-off = Rs. 50 million
    3. Reserve balance before current year provision:
      Reserve before PLL=50050=Rs. 450 million\text{Reserve before PLL} = 500 - 50 = \text{Rs. 450 million}
    4. Target Minimum Adequate Reserve = Rs. 475 million.
    5. Provision required to reach the minimum target:
      PLL=475450=Rs.  25 million\text{PLL} = 475 - 450 = \mathbf{Rs.\; 25\text{ million}}

    Part (d): Reserve for Loan Losses

    • After adding the current year’s provision of Rs. 25 million:
      Final Ending Reserve for Loan Losses=450+25=Rs.  475 million\text{Final Ending Reserve for Loan Losses} = 450 + 25 = \mathbf{Rs.\; 475\text{ million}}
      (If the bank chooses to restore the reserve back to its original baseline of Rs. 500 million, the provision would be Rs. 50 million, and ending reserve would be Rs. 500 million).
  4. Consider the following stock quote for Nabil Bank Limited derived from NEPSE trading as on July 31, 2024.

    Symbol Open High Low Close Vol Prev.Close Turnover Diff% 52 Weeks High Low
    NABIL 596 630 590 635 123,432 590 37214250 +7.62 775 495

    a. What do ‘Open’, ‘High’ and ‘Low’ mean? b. At what price did the stock close on the trading day? c. What were the maximum and the minimum trading prices of NABIL stock on the day of quotation? d. How many shares of NABIL stock were traded on the day? e. What is total value of shares traded on the day? f. Did the stock price increase or decrease on the day of quotation as compared to previous day? g. What does ‘diff%’ mean? h. How do you explain ‘52 weeks High-Low’ quote?

    [10]
    View model solution

    Solution: NEPSE Stock Quote Interpretation for Nabil Bank Limited


    a. Meaning of ‘Open’, ‘High’, and ‘Low’

    • Open (Rs. 596): The price at which the very first trade of NABIL shares was executed during the day’s trading session.
    • High (Rs. 630 / recorded intraday up to 635): The maximum price at which NABIL stock was traded during regular trading hours.
    • Low (Rs. 590): The lowest price at which NABIL stock was traded during the session.

    b. Closing Price on the Trading Day

    • The stock closed at Rs. 635 per share.

    c. Maximum and Minimum Trading Prices

    • Maximum Trading Price: Rs. 635 (or high of Rs. 630 recorded intraday).
    • Minimum Trading Price: Rs. 590.

    d. Number of Shares Traded (Volume)

    • The total volume of shares traded on the day was 123,432 shares.

    e. Total Value of Shares Traded (Turnover)

    • The total monetary turnover on that trading day was Rs. 37,214,250 (approximately Rs. 3.72 crore).

    f. Price Movement Compared to Previous Day

    • The stock price increased significantly:
      • Previous Close = Rs. 590
      • Current Close = Rs. 635
      • Net Increase = 635590=+Rs.  45 per share635 - 590 = \mathbf{+Rs.\; 45\text{ per share}} (gain).

    g. Meaning of ‘Diff%’

    • Diff% (+7.62%) indicates the percentage change in the closing price relative to the previous trading day’s closing price:
      Diff%=Current ClosePrevious ClosePrevious Close×100%=635590590×100%=+7.627%+7.62%\text{Diff\%} = \frac{\text{Current Close} - \text{Previous Close}}{\text{Previous Close}} \times 100\% = \frac{635 - 590}{590} \times 100\% = \mathbf{+7.627\% \approx +7.62\%}

    h. Explanation of ‘52 Weeks High-Low’ Quote

    • 52 Weeks High (Rs. 775) & Low (Rs. 495):
      • Represents the highest price (Rs. 775) and lowest price (Rs. 495) at which NABIL shares traded over the preceding 52 weeks (one calendar year).
      • It provides investors with a historical reference of price volatility and cyclical trading range.
  5. Write short notes on (Any TWO):

    a. Ancillary services

    b. Securities Board of Nepal

    c. Credit rating

    [10]
    View model solution

    Short Notes: Capital Market Institutions and Services


    a. Ancillary Financial Services

    Ancillary services provide vital operational, technological, clearing, and risk-management infrastructure that enables primary and secondary financial markets to function efficiently.

    • Key services include:
      1. Depository and Clearing (CDS & Clearing Ltd.): Dematerializes share certificates and guarantees automated T+2 delivery-versus-payment settlement.
      2. Depository Participants (DPs): Banks and brokers opening demat and MeroShare accounts for public retail investors.
      3. Credit Verification & Ratings: Conducted by CIB, ICRA Nepal, and Care Ratings Nepal.

    b. Securities Board of Nepal (SEBON)

    The Securities Board of Nepal (SEBON) is the apex statutory regulator of the securities market in Nepal, established under the Securities Act, 2063.

    • Key Responsibilities:
      1. Regulating and licensing stock exchanges (NEPSE), brokers, merchant bankers, credit rating agencies, and mutual funds.
      2. Approving prospectuses for IPOs, FPOs, rights issues, and debenture offerings.
      3. Monitoring secondary market trading, investigating insider trading, market manipulation, and protecting investor rights.

    c. Credit Rating

    Credit rating is an objective, formal evaluation of the creditworthiness of a borrower or a specific debt security (such as corporate bonds or debentures) conducted by a licensed independent rating agency.

    • Rating Symbols: Employs standardized alphanumeric scales (e.g., [ICRANP] AAA representing highest safety, down to D representing default).
    • Benefits: Helps corporate issuers price their debt securities accurately according to market risk and enables retail and institutional investors to make informed decisions without conducting expensive private investigations.

Section C

Analytical Answer Questions ( Attempt any TWO questions )

[2*15=30]
  1. Describe the components of financial system? Explain the current status of financial institutions in Nepal.

    [15]
    View model solution

    Analytical Discussion: Components of Financial System and Status of BFIs in Nepal


    Part I: Components of the Financial System

    The financial system constitutes the institutional infrastructure that mobilizes savings and allocates capital across an economy:

    1. Financial Institutions: Intermediaries mobilizing funds from savers to borrowers, divided into:
      • Depository Institutions: Commercial banks, development banks, finance companies, and microfinances.
      • Non-Depository Institutions: Insurance companies, contractual pension funds (EPF, CIT, SSF), and mutual funds.
    2. Financial Markets: The channels through which funds and claims are exchanged:
      • Money Market: Short-term liquidity instruments (T-bills, interbank loans, repo, CDs).
      • Capital Market: Long-term equity and debt instruments (primary market via C-ASBA; secondary market via NEPSE).
    3. Financial Instruments: Contractual debt, equity, hybrid, and derivative claims carrying monetary value.
    4. Financial Regulators: Apex bodies enforcing prudential stability:
      • Nepal Rastra Bank (central bank and banking supervisor).
      • Securities Board of Nepal (capital markets).
      • Nepal Insurance Authority (insurance sector).
      • Department of Cooperatives (cooperatives).
    5. Financial Infrastructure: Electronic payment switches (NCHL, RTGS, ConnectIPS), central securities depository (CDSC), and Credit Information Bureau (CIB).

    Part II: Current Status of Financial Institutions in Nepal

    The financial sector of Nepal has undergone substantial structural transformation over the past decade, characterized by large-scale consolidation, rapid digital banking adoption, and emerging asset quality challenges.

    1. Institutional Consolidation and Mergers

    • Prompted by NRB’s mandatory paid-up capital hikes (minimum Rs. 8 billion for Class ‘A’ banks) and merger incentives, the number of institutions has consolidated dramatically:
      • Class ‘A’ Commercial Banks: Reduced from 32 to 20 banks through aggressive cross-mergers (e.g., Global IME-Bank of Kathmandu, Himalayan-Civil, Nabil-NBB).
      • Class ‘B’ Development Banks: Consolidated to 17 banks (largely national and provincial players).
      • Class ‘C’ Finance Companies: Consolidated to 17 institutions.
      • Class ‘D’ Microfinance: Consolidated through forced mergers to around 50-60 institutions.

    2. Capitalization and Financial Soundness

    • Capital Adequacy: The commercial banking sector maintains a Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR) of around 12% to 13%, safely exceeding the Basel III minimum regulatory requirement of 11.0%.
    • Credit and Deposit Mobilization: Total banking deposits exceed Rs. 6.5 trillion, while total private sector credit stands around Rs. 5.1 trillion, maintaining a comfortable Credit-to-Deposit (CD) ratio below the regulatory ceiling of 90%.

    3. Deterioration in Asset Quality (NPL Pressures)

    • Following the post-COVID-19 economic slowdown, high interest rate cycles, and real estate market stagnation:
      • Non-Performing Loans (NPL) in Class ‘A’ banks rose from below 1.5% historically to around 3.8% to 4.5% in recent quarters.
      • Microfinance institutions face heightened delinquency, loan write-offs, and borrower unrest.

    4. Technological and Digital Transformation

    • Nepal’s financial sector has achieved unprecedented digital penetration:
      • Mobile banking users exceed 23 million, and internet banking users exceed 1.8 million.
      • Real-Time Gross Settlement (RTGS), national payment switches, and QR-code retail transactions have reduced cash transactions significantly.

    5. Crisis in the Cooperative Sector

    • Unregulated saving and credit cooperatives have experienced widespread liquidity crises, promoter embezzlement, and deposit defaults, exerting indirect pressure on the formal banking system and prompting calls for a second-tier regulatory authority.
  2. Summary of current account for the first nine months of the fiscal year 2023/24 published by Nepal Rastra Bank is as follows:

    Summary of Current Account (Rs. in million)

    Particulars Credit Debit
    Good and services Rs 440,000 Rs 2,800,000
    Goods 305,000 2,500,000
    Services 135,000 300,000
    Primary income 65,500 31,250
    Secondary income 1,410,000 9,675

    Based on the information contained in the summary of current account, you are required to answer the following questions:

    a. What do you mean by balance of payment and balance of trade?

    b. What is the net of goods and services account during the given period of fiscal years?

    c. What is the net of primary income account and secondary income account during the given period of fiscal year?

    d. Which accounts have contributed to increase the current account deficit? Explain.

    e. Which accounts have contributed to decrease the current account deficit? Explain.

    f. What is the trade deficit or surplus during the first nine months of given fiscal year? What does it mean?

    [15]
    View model solution

    Solution: Balance of Payments (BOP) Analysis for FY 2023/24 (First Nine Months)


    Part (a): Meaning of Balance of Payments (BOP) and Balance of Trade (BOT)

    1. Balance of Payments (BOP):
      • A comprehensive, systematic statistical accounting record of all economic and financial transactions conducted between the residents of a country and the rest of the world over a specified time period. It includes the Current Account, Capital Account, and Financial Account.
    2. Balance of Trade (BOT):
      • A sub-component of the current account that records exclusively the monetary value of merchandise exports (goods sold) and merchandise imports (goods bought).

    Part (b): Net of Goods and Services Account

    Net Goods and Services=Total CreditTotal Debit\text{Net Goods and Services} = \text{Total Credit} - \text{Total Debit}
    Net Balance=440,0002,800,000=Rs.  2,360,000 million\text{Net Balance} = 440,000 - 2,800,000 = \mathbf{-Rs.\; 2,360,000\text{ million}}

    This represents an alarming net deficit of Rs. 2,360,000 million (Rs. 2.36 trillion) in goods and services trade.


    Part (c): Net of Primary Income and Secondary Income Accounts

    1. Net Primary Income:

      Net Primary Income=65,50031,250=+Rs.  34,250 million\text{Net Primary Income} = 65,500 - 31,250 = \mathbf{+Rs.\; 34,250\text{ million}}
      (A surplus of Rs. 34,250 million from net cross-border employee compensation and investment income).

    2. Net Secondary Income:

      Net Secondary Income=1,410,0009,675=+Rs.  1,400,325 million\text{Net Secondary Income} = 1,410,000 - 9,675 = \mathbf{+Rs.\; 1,400,325\text{ million}}
      (A massive surplus of Rs. 1,400,325 million or Rs. 1.40 trillion, reflecting large inflows of workers’ remittances).


    Part (d): Accounts Contributing to Increase the Current Account Deficit

    The accounts creating massive debits are:

    1. Merchandise Goods Account: Incurred a massive deficit of Rs. 2,195,000 million (305,0002,500,000305,000 - 2,500,000), caused by overwhelming imports of petroleum products, vehicles, iron/steel, electronic gadgets, and consumer goods against meager domestic export production.
    2. Services Account: Generated a deficit of Rs. 165,000 million (135,000300,000135,000 - 300,000), driven by substantial outflows for foreign education tuition and travel expenditures abroad.

    Part (e): Accounts Contributing to Decrease the Current Account Deficit

    The accounts providing substantial surpluses to offset the trade deficit are:

    1. Secondary Income Account: Produced an extraordinary net surplus of Rs. 1,400,325 million, almost entirely composed of personal remittances transferred through formal banking channels by Nepalese migrant workers in the Gulf, Malaysia, and OECD nations.
    2. Primary Income Account: Added a net positive inflow of Rs. 34,250 million from earnings on foreign exchange reserves and returns on international investments.

    Part (f): Trade Deficit or Surplus and Macroeconomic Meaning

    Trade Balance=Goods Exports (Credit)Goods Imports (Debit)\text{Trade Balance} = \text{Goods Exports (Credit)} - \text{Goods Imports (Debit)}
    Trade Balance=305,0002,500,000=Rs.  2,195,000 million\text{Trade Balance} = 305,000 - 2,500,000 = \mathbf{-Rs.\; 2,195,000\text{ million}}

    Macroeconomic Meaning:

    • Nepal recorded a Merchandise Trade Deficit of Rs. 2,195,000 million (approximately Rs. 2.195 trillion) in just nine months.
    • This indicates an import-to-export ratio of more than 8.2 to 1 (Nepal imports more than eight rupees’ worth of goods for every one rupee exported).
    • It highlights Nepal’s acute structural trade vulnerability and its heavy dependence on foreign remittance inflows to avoid a foreign currency liquidity crisis.
  3. Assume that the real risk-free rate of interest is currently 2 percent Inflation is expected to be 5 percent this year, 6 percent in the second year

    and 7 percent in the third year and thereafter. Assume that the maturity risk premium up to three-year maturity is zero.

    a. What is the yield on 2-year Treasury securities?

    b. What is the yield on 3-year Treasury securities?

    c. If the maturity risk premium on 4- year securities is 0.75 percent, what is the yield on 4-year Treasury securities?

    d. What are the possible reasons that yields on long-term securities are usually larger than those of short-term securities?

    e. Briefly explain the determinants of interest rates.

    [15]
    View model solution

    Solution: Determinants of Interest Rates and Term Structure Analysis

    Given Parameters:

    • Real risk-free rate (kk^*) = 2.0%2.0\%
    • Expected Inflation:
      • Year 1: I1=5.0%I_1 = 5.0\%
      • Year 2: I2=6.0%I_2 = 6.0\%
      • Year 3 and thereafter: It=7.0%I_t = 7.0\% for all t3t \ge 3
    • Maturity risk premium (MRPMRP) for maturities 3\le 3 years = 0%0\%

    Part (a): Yield on 2-Year Treasury Securities (T2T_2)

    1. Average Inflation Premium over 2 Years (IP2IP_2):
      IP2=I1+I22=5.0%+6.0%2=5.50%IP_2 = \frac{I_1 + I_2}{2} = \frac{5.0\% + 6.0\%}{2} = 5.50\%
    2. Yield:
      T2=k+IP2+MRP2=2.0%+5.50%+0=7.50%T_2 = k^* + IP_2 + MRP_2 = 2.0\% + 5.50\% + 0 = \mathbf{7.50\%}

    Part (b): Yield on 3-Year Treasury Securities (T3T_3)

    1. Average Inflation Premium over 3 Years (IP3IP_3):
      IP3=I1+I2+I33=5.0%+6.0%+7.0%3=18.0%3=6.00%IP_3 = \frac{I_1 + I_2 + I_3}{3} = \frac{5.0\% + 6.0\% + 7.0\%}{3} = \frac{18.0\%}{3} = 6.00\%
    2. Yield:
      T3=k+IP3+MRP3=2.0%+6.00%+0=8.00%T_3 = k^* + IP_3 + MRP_3 = 2.0\% + 6.00\% + 0 = \mathbf{8.00\%}

    Part (c): Yield on 4-Year Treasury Securities (T4T_4)

    1. Average Inflation Premium over 4 Years (IP4IP_4):
      IP4=5.0%+6.0%+7.0%+7.0%4=25.0%4=6.25%IP_4 = \frac{5.0\% + 6.0\% + 7.0\% + 7.0\%}{4} = \frac{25.0\%}{4} = 6.25\%
    2. Given MRP4=0.75%MRP_4 = 0.75\%:
      T4=k+IP4+MRP4=2.0%+6.25%+0.75%=9.00%T_4 = k^* + IP_4 + MRP_4 = 2.0\% + 6.25\% + 0.75\% = \mathbf{9.00\%}

    The yield on 4-year Treasury securities is 9.00%.


    Part (d): Why Yields on Long-Term Securities are Usually Higher than Short-Term Securities

    1. Maturity Risk Premium (MRP): Longer-term bonds carry greater interest rate price risk. When interest rates rise, longer-dated bond prices fall much more steeply; investors demand an extra premium to bear this duration risk.
    2. Expectation of Rising Future Inflation: In growing economies, inflation is generally projected to rise over time, requiring higher nominal yields to guarantee a positive real return.
    3. Liquidity Preference Theory: Investors prefer liquidity and flexibility; committing funds for 10 or 20 years incurs an opportunity cost that borrowers must compensate with higher yields.

    Part (e): Determinants of Nominal Interest Rates

    The nominal quoted interest rate on any debt security (kk) is determined by five fundamental components:

    k=k+IP+DRP+LP+MRPk = k^* + IP + DRP + LP + MRP
    1. Real Risk-Free Rate (kk^*): The theoretical base interest rate on a completely default-free security when zero inflation is expected.
    2. Inflation Premium (IPIP): The average expected rate of inflation over the life of the security, compensating investors for eroded future purchasing power.
    3. Default Risk Premium (DRPDRP): Extra yield compensating investors for the risk that the borrower may fail to pay scheduled interest or principal (corporate bonds vs. Treasuries).
    4. Liquidity Premium (LPLP): Added yield charged if an asset cannot be rapidly converted to cash at fair market value without significant transaction cost.
    5. Maturity Risk Premium (MRPMRP): Yield increment compensating lenders for the higher market price volatility of longer-term bonds caused by interest rate fluctuations.